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Description
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the FactsPoker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost.
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.Binding Type: Paperback
Publisher: Portfolio
Published: 05/07/2019
ISBN: 9780735216372
Pages: 288
Weight: 0.50lbs
Size: 8.10h x 5.40w x 0.80d
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4.9 ★★★★★
Based on 21 reviews
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Product Reviews
★★★★★ 5
MUST BUY! For large Dogs Safe & Fun! 100lb Dutch shepherd loves this
Size: Large, Color: Blue, Size: Large, Color: Blue
I have 100 pound Dutch Shepherd who likes to chew and he goes through toys pretty quickly. This one he has been chewing on for hours and has not made a dent, not one!! he loves it. He bounces it. It’s very bouncy. I love that about it the engagement with it is great! noise level. It makes some noise. I’ve got wood floors so you can hear it bouncing and the squeak is pretty loud, which is fine with me. It doesn’t bother me. My pet really really enjoys this a lot. I think this is an amazing value for the money because I’ve spent more money on other toys and they fell apart within a day. I think it’s a safe toy because he’s not got a little hard plastic pieces that are coming off of it. It does not break apart very easily and the size is good. it fits in the palm of my hand so it’s pretty good size ball for him. It’s big enough. He cannot swallow it, but he can fit it in his mouth. I think the thing that I like the most about it and he enjoys is that when he drops it, it bounces and he can chase it. Pet enjoyment 10 out of 10 engagement 10 out of 10. I feel it’s very safe dog friendly absolutely must buy hands-down. You will not be disappointed. It’s made of a very strong. I would say rubber and it’s super easy to clean. Just toss it in the sink. Wash it off with soap and water rinse it. It’s good to go. I’m running to buy another one right now as we speak so just in case he loses it, he’ll have a backup.
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Reviewed in the United States on May 27, 2026
★★★★★ 5
Great, solid toy safe for my dog
Size: Large, Color: Blue, Size: Large, Color: Blue
This ball is great! My pit bull love toys, especially ones with squeakers, but she’s a power chewer and trashes them almost immediately. Since she’s got a history of swallowing foreign bodies, this means she’s rarely been able to have toys, and when she does get them, it’s short lived. She LOVES this ball and it’s already lasted multiple weeks with no signs of any damage, despite the fact she carries it everywhere and chews on it daily. We don’t have to worry about her safety with this toy, because it’s large and tough enough she can’t swallow anything. It hasn’t lost its squeak either despite all her tough love. She loves to play with it and we’re getting more of them asap so she has a backup if this one gets lost or eventually does break.
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Reviewed in the United States on May 2, 2026
★★★★★ 5
Truly indestructible
Size: Large, Color: Blue
They are not kidding, this ball is truly indestructible. I've gotten several for my dogs so they have plenty to share. Two of my dogs are beyond super chewers (bully breeds). One of the balls is missing the section that's glued into most of them, but the structure has still held up. And my dogs LOVE them.
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Reviewed in the United States on May 31, 2026
★★★★★ 4
Tough STINKY ball
Size: Large, Color: Red
This ball is the only one I've found that my dog can not destroy in seconds. He can chew on it for a few weeks before he works a hole in it. That's the good part. The bad side is the horrible smell! It doesn't seem to bother him, but it is horrible to my nose. It is so awful that I tried soaking it and dish soap and vinegar water overnight to see if I could make it go away. It was a little bit better but still stunk. Anybody got other suggestions on what could make the smell go away?
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Reviewed in the United States on April 12, 2026
★★★★★ 5
A good toy for chewers!!
Size: Large, Color: Blue
My dog loves this ball! The best part is that he hasn't destroyed it yet. He's a real chewer and has destroyed several toys since I got him about 6 months ago. The ball is very solid and a the squeak is not annoying. A great toy
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Reviewed in the United States on May 28, 2026